Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 6/10/2025

The Milwaukee Brewers will host the Atlanta Braves at American Family Field on June 10, 2025, for the second game of their series. The Brewers sit at 35-32 this season, showcasing an above-average performance, while the Braves are struggling at 28-37, marking a disappointing year. With both teams looking to improve their standings, this matchup carries weight for their respective seasons.

In their last meeting, the Braves won convincingly behind a strong pitching performance from Chris Sale. Today, the Brewers are projected to start Quinn Priester, who has a 3-2 record and a solid ERA of 3.88, despite being ranked as the 153rd best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his 4.58 FIP suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune this season. Priester is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, but he could struggle with a projected 5.2 hits and 1.7 walks.

On the other side, the Braves will counter with Grant Holmes, who has a 3-4 record and a slightly better ERA of 3.99. Holmes has also had some luck, as indicated by his 4.55 FIP. He is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, with a concerning average of 5.3 hits and 2.0 walks.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 23rd in MLB in team batting average and home runs, which highlights their struggles at the plate. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd, which could be a factor against a Braves team that ranks poorly in that category. The Braves, meanwhile, are slightly better offensively, sitting at 17th overall, but their 26th place ranking in stolen bases could hinder their ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, reflected in the Brewers' moneyline of +100 and the Braves' at -120. The projections suggest that this matchup could be more favorable for the Brewers than their current odds indicate, making them an intriguing team to watch as they look to build on their recent success.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Because groundball batters face a disadvantage against groundball pitchers, Grant Holmes (43% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 3 GB hitters in the opposition's projected offense.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ronald Acuna Jr.'s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 97.6-mph now compared to just 92.2-mph then.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Atlanta's 89.9-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in the league: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Quinn Priester in the 8th percentile among all SPs in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Extreme flyball batters like Christian Yelich are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Grant Holmes.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

William Contreras hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games (+11.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• Sal Frelick has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.60 Units / 20% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.78, Milwaukee Brewers 4.3

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Grant Holmes - Braves
  • Quinn Priester - Brewers

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