Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction – 6/9/2025

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Atlanta Braves on June 9, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Brewers are currently sitting above .500 with a 35-31 record, while the Braves are struggling at 27-37, marking a disappointing season for the defending champions. This matchup is significant as it kicks off a series between these two National League rivals.

The Brewers are projected to start Aaron Civale, who has had a rocky season thus far. With a Win/Loss record of 1-1 and an ERA of 5.19, Civale ranks as the 187th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, which is on the lower end of the spectrum. His peripherals suggest he may have been unlucky, with a 4.61 SIERA indicating he could improve moving forward. However, he projects to allow an average of 2.9 earned runs over 5.0 innings, which could be problematic against a Braves offense that has the potential to break out.

On the other side, the Braves will send Chris Sale to the mound. With a stellar 2.93 ERA and a ranking of 10th among MLB starters, Sale is expected to deliver a strong performance. He projects to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing only 2.1 earned runs while striking out an impressive 7.6 batters per game. This gives Sale a distinct advantage against a Brewers offense that ranks 23rd in MLB, struggling in several key categories.

Despite the Brewers being underdogs with a moneyline of +145, they have the home-field advantage and an elite bullpen ranked 17th. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, this matchup could hinge on whether Sale can stifle Milwaukee's offense while the Brewers look to capitalize on any mistakes from Civale. Overall, this game presents an intriguing clash of pitching prowess versus offensive struggles.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Chris Sale's slider rate has spiked by 8.2% from last year to this one (40.3% to 48.5%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme flyball bats like Ozzie Albies are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Aaron Civale.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Ozzie Albies pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.2% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 7th-deepest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Aaron Civale's 2392.6-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season is in the 80th percentile among all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Sal Frelick is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 4th-worst projected lineup on the slate today in of overall batting skill belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+10.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 games (+11.85 Units / 31% ROI)
• Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.65 Units / 42% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.95, Milwaukee Brewers 3.77

• Date: June 9, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Sale - Braves
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers

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