Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Prediction – 6/14/2025

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on June 14, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race in the middle of the American League standings. The Mariners are currently at 34-34, while the Guardians sit slightly ahead at 35-33, reflecting both teams' struggles with consistency this season.

Mariners' pitcher George Kirby, ranked 27th in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, faces off against Tanner Bibee, ranked 61st. Kirby has had a rough season with a 6.53 ERA, but his 2.86 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could see improvement. He projects to pitch 6.0 innings while allowing 2.1 earned runs, which offers some hope for the Mariners' struggling offense, ranked 12th overall but a disappointing 20th in batting average.

Bibee, meanwhile, has a solid 3.81 ERA and projects to handle an average of 5.8 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed. However, his 4.84 FIP indicates that he may not maintain that level of success moving forward. The Guardians' offense has not been impressive, ranking 24th in both overall performance and batting average.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, this matchup is expected to be tightly contested. The Mariners' current moneyline is set at -130, with an implied team total of 3.66 runs, while the Guardians are at +110, with a very low implied total of 3.34 runs. Despite the low expectations from the betting markets, the Mariners have the potential to outperform these projections, especially if Kirby can find his rhythm on the mound.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Tanner Bibee's 2239-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a sizeable 122-rpm decline from last year's 2361-rpm rate.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Extreme flyball batters like Jose Ramirez tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like George Kirby.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in T-Mobile Park — the #9 HR venue among all major league parks — today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Jorge Polanco has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 10.2% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.70 Units / 39% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+4.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+11.70 Units / 45% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 3.6, Seattle Mariners 3.84

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians
  • George Kirby - Mariners

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