Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 6/11/2025

On June 11, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Detroit Tigers at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in a critical matchup. The Orioles have struggled this season with a 26-39 record, while the Tigers are thriving at 44-24, currently positioned as one of the American League's top teams. Adding to the excitement, these two clubs met yesterday, with the Tigers securing a victory to take a 1-0 lead in the series.

The Orioles will send Zach Eflin to the mound, a right-handed pitcher with a 5-2 record and a 4.47 ERA this year. Despite ranking as the 71st best starting pitcher according to advanced statistics, Eflin has been somewhat unlucky, as his 3.56 xERA indicates better performance could be expected moving forward. However, he's been inconsistent, projecting to allow 2.9 earned runs and 6.0 hits—both of which are concerning figures.

Conversely, the Tigers will counter with Casey Mize, who has impressed this season with a remarkable 6-1 record and a stellar 2.91 ERA. While Mize's projections suggest he may face some regression, his status as an average pitcher has nonetheless helped keep the Tigers competitive. Mize's ability to limit earned runs will be critical against an Orioles offense that ranks 20th in MLB.

Both teams have strong bullpens, with the Orioles ranking 7th and the Tigers 2nd in the league. With a Game Total set at 9.0 runs and both teams projected to score 4.50 runs, sports betting markets indicate a closely contested game. Given the disparity in team performance and pitching matchups, the Orioles may find it challenging to turn their season around against a dominant Tigers squad.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Casey Mize's change-up percentage has risen by 6.5% from last season to this one (18.1% to 24.6%) .

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In the last week, Javier Baez's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.3% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Among all starting pitchers, Zach Eflin's fastball velocity of 90.9 mph is in the 19th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jackson Holliday has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.3-mph dropping to 81-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cedric Mullins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 44 games (+11.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 67 games (+12.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Kerry Carpenter has hit the RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 35% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.7, Baltimore Orioles 5.15

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Casey Mize - Tigers
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles

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