Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Pick – 6/11/2025

The San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers continue their series at Petco Park on June 11, 2025, after the Padres took the second game in a blowout yesterday. With both teams currently maintaining strong records at 38-28 for the Padres and 40-28 for the Dodgers, this matchup is significant within the National League West.

Looking at the pitching matchup, the Padres are set to start Randy Vasquez, who, despite ranking as the 308th best starting pitcher in MLB per advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasts a respectable ERA of 3.69. Nonetheless, his 5.68 xFIP suggests he may struggle moving forward, specifically due to high walk rates (12.3 BB%) that could be exploited by a patient Dodgers offense that ranks 2nd in the league in walks. Vasquez's tendency to allow fly balls (38 FB%) could also prove problematic against a lineup that has hit 103 home runs this season, the 2nd most in MLB.

On the other side, Justin Wrobleski takes the mound for the Dodgers. Although he has struggled early in his career with a 7.20 ERA, projections suggest he may be due for improvement given his 3.97 xFIP. Wrobleski's groundball tendencies (51 GB%) may work in his favor against a Padres offense that ranks poorly in home runs, standing at 25th overall.

While the Padres offense ranks 21st in MLB, their advanced-stat Power Rankings hint at a more favorable assessment than their actual performance shows. This series offers a critical opportunity for the Padres to gain ground in the division as they remain the underdogs at a +125 moneyline, compared to the Dodgers' -150. With a game total set at 9.5 runs, expect a high-scoring showdown.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Justin Wrobleski is an extreme flyball pitcher (33.4% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #9 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Extreme groundball hitters like Max Muncy tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Randy Vasquez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Los Angeles Dodgers projected offense profiles as the strongest of all teams on the slate in of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this year (65.5% compared to 55.9% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The San Diego Padres bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+7.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games (+7.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Andy Pages has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 57% ROI)

Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.74, San Diego Padres 5.17

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Wrobleski - Dodgers
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres

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