Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick – 6/7/2025

On June 7, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Miami Marlins at George M. Steinbrenner Field in what promises to be an intriguing Interleague matchup. The Rays enter this game with a record of 34-29, enjoying an above-average season, while the Marlins are struggling at 23-38, sitting solidly in the basement of the standings. In their previous encounter, the Rays took a decisive victory, setting the stage for today's game.

Taj Bradley, projected to start for the Rays, has had an inconsistent year with a 4-5 record and a 3.95 ERA. However, his 3.25 xERA suggests that he has been a bit unfortunate, indicating that he might perform better than his numbers show. Bradley's ability to generate ground balls (48% GB%) should play favorably against a Marlins offense, which has particularly struggled with power, ranking 27th in home runs this season. Additionally, the Rays’ bullpen ranks 10th in the league, providing a solid safety net if Bradley falters.

On the other side, Ryan Weathers will take the mound for the Marlins. Though Weathers boasts an impressive 2.49 ERA, his 3.53 xFIP reveals that he may be due for some regression. With an underwhelming offense ing him, Weathers may find it challenging to secure much run .

The projections suggest that the Rays have a high implied team total of 4.85 runs for today's game, while the Marlins are pegged at a more modest 4.15 runs. With the Rays' offense ranking 17th in the league and their top hitter recently putting up impressive stats, expectations are certainly tilted in favor of Tampa Bay as they look to build on their recent success against Miami.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Extreme groundball hitters like Jesus Sanchez tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Taj Bradley.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Miami Marlins bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Because flyball pitchers have a notable edge over flyball bats, Taj Bradley and his 42.7% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good spot in today's game facing 4 opposing FB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Josh Lowe is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, Danny Jansen is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.5% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 38 games (+12.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 66% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+9.50 Units / 119% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.31, Tampa Bay Rays 4.7

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • Taj Bradley - Rays

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