New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 6/7/2025

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the New York Mets on June 7, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position. The Rockies currently hold a dismal record of 12-51 this season, reflecting their struggles on the field, while the Mets are riding high with a 40-24 record, showcasing their strong performance. In their previous matchup yesterday, the Rockies continued their rough stretch, unable to secure a win against the Mets.

On the mound, the Rockies are projected to start Carson Palmquist, who has had a tough season, going 0-4 with an ERA of 8.50. His advanced stats suggest he may be due for better luck, but facing a disciplined Mets lineup that ranks 3rd in the league in walks could spell trouble. Palmquist's tendency to issue free es (11.5 BB%) could lead to a long afternoon against a patient Mets offense.

In contrast, the Mets will send Clay Holmes to the hill, who boasts an impressive 3.07 ERA and a solid 6-3 record this year. Holmes has been effective at minimizing damage and is projected to pitch 5.4 innings while allowing about 2.8 earned runs. The Rockies' offense, ranked 30th overall, has struggled to produce runs, which could amplify the Mets' advantage.

With a Game Total set at 11.0 runs, bettors should be cautious. The Rockies are seen as heavy underdogs with a moneyline of +230, while the Mets are favored at -270. The projections indicate a potential for the Mets to score heavily, with an implied team total of 6.80 runs, while the Rockies are hovering around 4.20 runs. All signs point to a likely win for the Mets, especially given the stark contrast in both teams' current form and performance metrics.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Clay Holmes is an extreme groundball pitcher (57% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #7 HR venue among all parks — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Tyrone Taylor is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

As a result of his large platoon split, Carson Palmquist will be at a disadvantage matching up with 6 hitters in the projected batting order who bat from the other side in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Hunter Goodman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91-mph to 102-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Compared to their .321 overall projected rate, the .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected lineup in today's game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't ing for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 57 games (+11.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 55 games (+10.09 Units / 14% ROI)
• Hunter Goodman has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+7.20 Units / 21% ROI)

New York Mets vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: New York Mets 6.72, Colorado Rockies 5.19

• Date: June 7, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Clay Holmes - Mets
  • Carson Palmquist - Rockies

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