Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 6/14/2025

On June 14, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Wrigley Field in what marks the third game of their series. Despite being upset by the Pirates on Friday, the Cubs continue to showcase their strength with a record of 42-28, and they enter this matchup positioned well in the National League Central. Conversely, the Pirates are struggling at 29-42, underscoring their difficult season.

The Cubs are expected to send Matthew Boyd to the mound, who has been a standout this year with a 5-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.89. Boyd is ranked as the 47th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, suggesting he has the capability to maintain this level of performance. However, his xFIP of 3.95 indicates he might have had a stroke of luck and could face challenges moving forward. Boyd projects to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing around 2.0 earned runs today.

On the other side, the Pirates will counter with Michael Burrows, whose 1-1 record and 5.00 ERA place him in a less favorable light. Burrows has struggled through his four starts this season and projects to only last 4.6 innings while allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs, highlighting his inconsistency.

The Cubs' offense ranks 4th overall in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs effectively, while the Pirates sit at 28th, struggling to produce. The projections suggest the Cubs could score around 4.46 runs, significantly higher than the Pirates' meager estimated total of 3.04 runs.

With the Cubs firmly in contention and the Pirates seeking to turn their season around, this game promises to be an intriguing battle of strengths against weaknesses. Given their statistical advantages, expect the Cubs to capitalize on their home-field edge against a faltering Pirates squad.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Mike Burrows must realize this, because he has utilized his non-fastballs a lot since the start of last season: 60.8% of the time, grading out in the 80th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Ke'Bryan Hayes is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Matthew Boyd was on point in his last start and conceded 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Ian Happ's average exit velocity has declined lately; his 88.4-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 86.3-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Kyle Tucker is at a disadvantage facing the league's 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 35.2% rate (89th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 61 games (+7.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+13.90 Units / 21% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.3, Chicago Cubs 3.95

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael Burrows - Pirates
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs

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