San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Pick – 6/6/2025

On June 6, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the San Diego Padres at American Family Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Brewers currently sit at 34-29, enjoying an above-average season, while the Padres are slightly ahead at 35-26, showcasing a solid performance. Notably, the Brewers' offense ranks 23rd in MLB, indicating struggles in generating runs, but they do excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd in the league.

Chad Patrick is set to take the mound for the Brewers, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.97 this season, though advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some regression. His counterpart, Randy Vasquez, has a good ERA of 3.99 but struggles with a higher xFIP of 5.55, indicating that he has been fortunate this season. Both pitchers have similar Win/Loss records at 3-4, but Patrick's ability to limit earned runs gives him a slight edge in this matchup.

The Padres' offense, while ranked 19th in the league and has shown average performance. However, they rank 25th in home runs, suggesting a lack of power that could be exploited by Patrick, who is a high-flyball pitcher. This matchup could favor the Brewers, as the Padres may struggle to convert Patrick's flyballs into home runs.

Despite the Brewers being favored with a moneyline of -145 and an implied team total of 4.58 runs, their recent struggles at the plate could make it a tight contest. With both teams aiming to gain momentum, this game promises to be a pivotal one in their respective seasons.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Randy Vasquez's higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (66.6% vs. 55.9% last season) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jose Iglesias's average exit velocity has decreased this year; his 85.8-mph average last year has fallen off to 82.9-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Positioned 2nd-least steep in the game this year, San Diego Padres batters as a unit have put up a 10.9° launch angle (a reliable standard to evaluate the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Among all SPs, Chad Patrick's fastball velocity of 86.9 mph ranks in the 2nd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jake Bauers is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#3-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers batters as a group grade out 30th- in MLB for power this year when using their 6.4% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 53 games (+10.10 Units / 16% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+6.80 Units / 25% ROI)
• Joseph Ortiz has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.90 Units / 42% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.28, Milwaukee Brewers 4.69

• Date: June 6, 2025
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Chad Patrick - Brewers

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