San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Pick – 6/11/2025

On June 11, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the San Francisco Giants at Coors Field, looking to bounce back after losing the first game of this series. Both teams are experiencing vastly different seasons; the Rockies sit at a dismal 12-54, while the Giants are in contention with a solid 39-28 record.

The matchup pits left-handed pitchers Kyle Freeland and Robbie Ray against each other. Freeland has struggled this season, holding a 1-8 record with a concerning 5.19 ERA. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his xFIP of 3.64 indicates he has the potential to improve. Freeland is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 3.5 earned runs, though he faces a tough challenge against a Giants offense that, despite ranking 25th overall, has some capable hitters.

Robbie Ray, on the other hand, has been a standout for the Giants, boasting an impressive 8-1 record and a stellar 2.44 ERA. His xFIP of 3.57 suggests he may regress slightly, but his high strikeout rate of 28.4% could exploit the Rockies' high strikeout offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB. Ray is also projected to pitch 5.2 innings and is expected to allow around 3.3 earned runs, making him a tough opponent for a struggling Rockies lineup.

The Rockies' offense has been abysmal this year, ranking 29th in MLB, while the Giants' bullpen has been the best in the league, according to Power Rankings. With the Giants favored heavily at -235 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 6.00 runs, they appear poised to capitalize on both Freeland's inconsistencies and the Rockies' offensive shortcomings. As the Rockies' prospects for the season look bleak, this game may serve as another opportunity for the Giants to solidify their standing in the National League West.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Robbie Ray's 93-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1-mph fall off from last year's 94-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Extreme flyball batters like Wilmer Flores are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Kyle Freeland.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Kyle Freeland is an extreme flyball pitcher (32.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #7 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Ryan Ritter has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to tally the 3rd-most runs (5.29 on average) of the day.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.47 Units / 18% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+12.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.05 Units / 41% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 6.03, Colorado Rockies 5.29

• Date: June 11, 2025
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Robbie Ray - Giants
  • Kyle Freeland - Rockies

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