St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets Prediction For 4/26/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Jose Butto - Mets
• Run Line: Cardinals 1.5 -185, Mets -1.5 160
• Money Line: Cardinals 115, Mets -135
• Total (Over/Under): 8

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 45%
• New York Mets - 55%

Projected Win %:

• St. Louis Cardinals - 52.36%
• New York Mets - 47.64%

St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Mets Game Preview & Prediction

On April 26, 2024, the New York Mets will face off against the St. Louis Cardinals in a National League matchup at Citi Field. The Mets, with a record of 13-11 this season, are having an above-average season, while the Cardinals, with a record of 11-14, have been struggling.

The Mets will be the home team for this game, playing at Citi Field. Jose Butto, a right-handed pitcher, is projected to start for the Mets, while the Cardinals are expected to start Miles Mikolas, also a right-handed pitcher.

Jose Butto has started three games this year and holds an excellent ERA of 1.65. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. On the other hand, Miles Mikolas has started five games with a 6.49 ERA, which is considered terrible. His xFIP indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

In of offense, the Mets rank 10th best in MLB this season, while the Cardinals rank 27th, making it a significant advantage for the home team. However, the Cardinals have a strong bullpen, ranked as the best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, potentially leveling the playing field.

Looking at the projections, Jose Butto is expected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 4.3 batters, and giving up 4.4 hits and 2.4 walks. Miles Mikolas, on the other hand, is projected to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs, striking out 3.8 batters, and giving up 5.9 hits and 1.6 walks.

In their last game, the Mets played against an unknown team, while the Cardinals faced an unknown opponent as well. However, let's shift our focus to the Mets' standout player over the past week, Francisco Lindor. Lindor has recorded impressive statistics, including 9 hits, 4 runs, 8 RBIs, and 3 home runs, with a batting average of .375 and an OPS of 1.192. The Cardinals' best hitter in the last seven games has been Willson Contreras, with 5 hits, 1 home run, a batting average of .278, and an OPS of .980.

Considering the factors at play, this game appears to favor the Mets. With their above-average season, strong offense, and Jose Butto's solid performance, they have the edge against a struggling Cardinals team. However, it's important to note that Miles Mikolas' low-strikeout style could pose a challenge for a Mets offense that ranks among the MLB's best in avoiding strikeouts.

The Game Total for this matchup is 8.0 runs, and the Mets are the favorites with a moneyline set at -130, implying a 54% win probability. The Cardinals have a moneyline of +110, giving them a 46% win probability. These odds suggest that the game is expected to be closely contested.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (57.9% vs. 49.7% last year) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Brendan Donovan's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

Out of every team on the slate today, the 7th-weakest infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Francisco Lindor will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side against Miles Mikolas in today's matchup.

• Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The New York Mets (21 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone set of batters on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 111 games (+15.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 42 away games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)

Cardinals vs Mets Prediction: Cardinals 4.32 - Mets 3.91

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