Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 6/10/2025

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on June 10, 2025, they find themselves in a pivotal American League East matchup. The Red Sox are currently struggling with a 32-36 record, while the Rays are performing better at 36-30. In their previous game, which was the first of the series, the Rays edged out the Red Sox with a narrow victory, putting added pressure on Boston to level the series at Fenway Park.

Lucas Giolito is projected to take the mound for the Red Sox. This season, he has struggled, posting a 1-1 record and a troubling 6.42 ERA over 7 starts. However, his 4.29 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, hinting that a turnaround could be on the horizon. Giolito projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings and allow 2.9 earned runs, but he needs to improve on his projected 5.4 hits and 2.0 walks allowed to keep the Rays' offense at bay.

On the other side, Ryan Pepiot is set to start for the Rays. Pepiot has been more effective, with a 3-5 record and an impressive 3.20 ERA over 13 starts. His projections show he might struggle a bit as well, with an estimated 5.1 hits and 1.7 walks allowed. Given that Pepiot is facing a Red Sox offense that ranks 6th in MLB in home runs with 83, the potential for power plays heavily into Boston's favor.

While both teams are averaging a high total of 4.75 runs, the Red Sox's dynamic offense and Giolito's potential for improvement could create an exciting showdown at Fenway. With the game total set high at 9.5 runs, bettors should brace for an offensive showcase as both teams vie for crucial wins in the tightly contested AL East.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Jonathan Aranda has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 9.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Carlos Narvaez has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.9-mph to 98.1-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.65 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.35 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jonathan Aranda has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.81, Boston Red Sox 4.76

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Lucas Giolito - Red Sox

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