Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets Pick – 6/13/2025

As the New York Mets and Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face off on June 13, 2025, the stakes are high for the Mets, who currently boast a stellar 45-24 record this season. Meanwhile, the Rays sit at 36-32, showcasing an above-average performance but unable to match the Mets' success. This interleague matchup marks the first game of the series and has significant implications as both teams aim to solidify their standings.

In their last outing, the Mets had a strong showing. The Mets' offense is ranked 5th in MLB, ed by their impressive power, with 89 home runs so far this season. In contrast, the Rays, sitting at 17th in MLB offensive rankings, will look to capitalize on their elite speed on the bases, while struggling to match the Mets' home run capabilities.

On the mound, Mets' Clay Holmes is projected to start. He brings a solid 7-3 record with an excellent ERA of 2.95 and ranks as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB. However, advanced projections suggest he might be due for a regression, as his xFIP of 3.60 indicates a bit of luck in his performance. Holmes is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings while allowing about 2.1 earned runs, a testament to an effective but potentially volatile outing.

Opposing him will be Tampa Bay's Taj Bradley, who has a 4-5 record and an ERA of 4.58 this season. While Bradley ranks 77th among starting pitchers, projections suggest he might fare better than his numbers indicate, given his lower xFIP of 4.03. With both pitchers sharing similar average innings pitched projections, the outcome may hinge on which offense can break through.

Currently, the Mets are favored with a moneyline of -165, suggesting a high implied team total of 4.44 runs. Meanwhile, the Rays, underdogs at +140, have a low implied total of 3.56 runs. As these two teams clash, the Mets' offensive prowess and Holmes' strong start will be pivotal in determining the game's outcome.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley has gone to his curveball 5.2% more often this year (14.2%) than he did last season (9%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

In the past two weeks, Kameron Misner's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen ranks as the 9th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

In his last game started, Clay Holmes was in good form and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Pete Alonso has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.3-mph average to last season's 89.7-mph EV.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Brandon Nimmo has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+11.60 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games (+9.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 48% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.72, New York Mets 4.37

• Date: June 13, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Clay Holmes - Mets

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.