Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Pick – 6/10/2025

On June 10, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Texas Rangers at Target Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Twins enter this matchup with a record of 35-30, positioning themselves in a solid spot as they strive for a winning season, while the Rangers sit at 31-35, struggling to find their footing.

On the mound, Minnesota will send out Simeon Woods Richardson, who has had a challenging season thus far, with an ERA of 5.02. While he ranks as the 178th best starting pitcher in MLB, advanced projections suggest he has been a bit unlucky this year and may improve. Woods Richardson is projected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings while allowing around 2.9 earned runs, a sign that could pose challenges for the Twins' hopes in this matchup.

In stark contrast, the Rangers will counter with Tyler Mahle, who has been a standout for Texas, holding an impressive ERA of 2.02 and a ranking of 80th among MLB pitchers. Mahle's projections indicate he will pitch approximately 5.3 innings and allow about 2.8 earned runs, which bodes well for the Rangers, especially considering Minnesota's offense ranks just 16th overall and is struggling to generate consistent runs.

With the Twins favored at -125, they have a high implied team total of 4.40 runs, while the Rangers' total sits at an average 4.10 runs. This game is crucial for both teams, as they look to build momentum heading into the latter part of the season. As always, the first game of a series can set the tone, making this matchup one to watch.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Adolis Garcia is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today's game, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Matt Wallner has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.6-mph to 98.6-mph over the past 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Minnesota grades out as the #25 offense in MLB when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (14.8% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit too low can't clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don't go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+10.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 51 games (+22.55 Units / 40% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+7.05 Units / 101% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.35, Minnesota Twins 4.98

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Mahle - Rangers
  • Simeon Woods Richardson - Twins

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