Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 6/12/2025

On June 12, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Texas Rangers at Target Field in the third game of their series. The Twins enter this matchup boasting a record of 36-31, reflecting an above-average season, while the Rangers sit at 32-36, having struggled to find their footing. In their last game, the Twins showcased their offensive prowess with a solid performance, further emphasizing their competitive edge.

The Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Bailey Ober, who has shown himself to be an effective arm with a 4-2 record and a solid 3.78 ERA this season. However, advanced stats suggest he might have been a bit fortunate, as his 4.62 xFIP indicates potential regression. Ober's ability to limit walks (5.1 BB%) may face a challenge against a Rangers offense that ranks 3rd in MLB for fewest walks. Still, Ober's matchup against Texas, who ranks 28th in overall offense and batting average, suggests he could thrive.

On the other side, the Rangers will counter with left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin, whose performance has been less than stellar this season, with a 3-5 record and a 3.52 ERA. However, his 4.26 xFIP indicates he might be due for some negative regression as well. Corbin’s strikeout numbers are concerning, with projections suggesting he will only strike out 4.4 batters, which plays into the Twins' advantage.

Offensively, the Twins rank 14th overall in MLB, while the Rangers' offense struggles at 28th, making it difficult for Texas to ignite a rally. The Twins' projected team total of 4.71 runs is favorable, and given their recent performance, they look poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage. With the Twins favored at -165, they appear to be a solid bet to take this game against a struggling Rangers squad.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The Minnesota Twins have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Patrick Corbin today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, bats like Marcus Semien who hit a lot of groundballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Bailey Ober.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober's fastball velocity has dropped 1.9 mph this year (89.8 mph) below where it was last season (91.7 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Minnesota Twins (24.9% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-most strikeout-heavy team of batters on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games (+10.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 56 games (+19.15 Units / 31% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.81, Minnesota Twins 5.13

• Date: June 12, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Rangers
  • Bailey Ober - Twins

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