Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction – 6/14/2025

On June 14, 2025, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Citizens Bank Park for the second game of their interleague series. The Phillies are in a strong position, holding a record of 40-29, and are coming off a solid stretch that has seen them solidify their playoff aspirations. In contrast, Toronto sits at 38-31, having shown flashes of competitiveness but struggling with consistency.

Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez is projected to take the mound, boasting a stellar 3.10 ERA and a solid 5-2 Win/Loss record this year. Sanchez, who is ranked as the 15th best starting pitcher according to advanced metrics, faces a Blue Jays lineup that has the least strikeouts in MLB. While Sanchez showcases a high strikeout rate of 27.0%, the matchup might favor Toronto’s offense, which has seen better results despite its overall performance.

On the other hand, Bowden Francis will be pitching for the Blue Jays. With a disappointing 2-8 record and an ERA of 6.12, Francis has struggled throughout the season. His underlying metrics suggest he could see slight improvement, but he still ranks as one of the worst pitchers in MLB. The projections indicate he could allow around 2.9 earned runs and average nearly 5.1 hits, which could play into the hands of a Phillies offense that ranks 8th overall this season.

Betting lines currently favor Philadelphia significantly, with a moneyline of -170, reflecting their strong position and potential to outscore Toronto, which has an implied team total of 3.73 runs for this matchup. With both teams bringing their respective strengths and weaknesses to the field, this game promises to be an exciting matchup as the Phillies seek to maintain their successful season and build on their existing lead.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis's fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this year (91.8 mph) below where it was last season (92.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Ernie Clement is penciled in 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Toronto Blue Jays (18.8 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone team of hitters of all teams on the slate today.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that Cristopher Sanchez will rack up an average of 17.5 outs in this matchup.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that s for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Max Kepler has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 96-mph in the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 44 games (+10.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 68 games (+14.05 Units / 14% ROI)
• Alejandro Kirk has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 8 games (+8.15 Units / 81% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.15, Philadelphia Phillies 4.73

• Date: June 14, 2025
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

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