Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Pick – 6/10/2025

The New York Mets will host the Washington Nationals on June 10, 2025, in a crucial National League East matchup. The Mets currently sit at 42-24, showcasing a strong season, while the Nationals are struggling at 30-35. In this outing, the Mets' Griffin Canning will take the mound, following an impressive performance this season with a 2.90 ERA and a 6-2 record over 12 starts. However, advanced metrics suggest he might be due for some regression, as indicated by his 3.68 xFIP.

MacKenzie Gore, the Nationals' starter, comes in with a solid 2.87 ERA, ranking him as the 35th best pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Despite a 3-5 record over 13 starts, Gore's ability to strike out batters (projecting around 6.0 strikeouts today) could be a factor against a potent Mets offense.

The Mets' offense ranks 5th overall in MLB, boasting a high home run total of 83, which makes them a significant threat against Gore, who is a high-flyball pitcher. While the Nationals have shown signs of life with a respectable 19th ranking in offense, their 21st ranking in team batting average indicates they may struggle to consistently find success against strong pitching.

With the Mets favored at -160 and an implied team total of 4.13 runs, there's a favorable expectation for their offense to capitalize on Gore's flyball tendencies. Meanwhile, the Nationals’ implied total of just 3.37 runs suggests a tough day ahead against a Mets squad that has proven to be resilient and powerful at the plate. The game has a low total of 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a tightly contested matchup, but the Mets' overall talent level gives them the upper hand in this series opener.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

As a result of his large reverse platoon split, MacKenzie Gore figures to be at an advantage matching up with 7 batters in the projected offense of the opposite hand in today's game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Typically, hitters like Josh Bell who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Griffin Canning.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

In the past 7 days, Francisco Lindor's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.6% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 4th-best projected offense on the slate in of overall hitting ability is that of the the New York Mets.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+11.09 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+8.02 Units / 14% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+12.65 Units / 64% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs New York Mets Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.8, New York Mets 4.57

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: Citi Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Griffin Canning - Mets

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