As UFC on ESPN rolls into Atlanta on Saturday, June 14, 2025, Ricky Simon and Cameron Smotherman will face off in the prelims. This bantamweight clash brings together Simon, a veteran grappler known for his tenacity, and Smotherman, a rising striker on the UFC stage. Here, I bring you my Ricky Simon vs Cameron Smotherman prediction before they face off in the ATL.
Our Ricky Simon vs Cameron Smotherman Pick
- Pick: Ricky Simon by decision
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Tale of the Tape
| Ricky Simon | Cameron Smotherman | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 27 |
| Height | 5′6″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 69″ | 69″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Record | 21‑6‑0 | 12‑5‑0 |
Ricky Simon vs Cameron Smotherman Preview
Simon steps into the Octagon with a record of 21‑6, carrying a rich resume that includes seven knockouts and four submissions. His UFC career spans over 14 fights, highlighted by a first‑round knockout of Javid Basharat in February 2025, earning him a Performance of the Night bonus. Although he dropped three in a row between early 2023 and mid‑2024, Simon rebounded impressively and now looks to extend his resurgence with a second win in a row.
He boasts strong wrestling metrics, averaging around 5 takedowns per 15 minutes with roughly 44 percent success and a solid takedown defense. His striking stats include nearly 3 significant strikes landed per minute with approximately 50 percent accuracy.
Smotherman, nicknamed “The Baby‑Faced Killa,” will be making his third UFC appearance but lacks the top‑flight experience Simon possesses. His record stands at 12‑5, with six KOs, one submission, and five decision victories. However, he lost his most recent UFC outing via unanimous decision to Serhiy Sidey on May 3, 2025.
Smotherman brings an aggressive striking style, landing about 5.1 significant strikes per minute with around 39 percent accuracy. His takedown attempts are minimal, effectively zero in UFC, highlighting a clear reliance on stand‑up offense.
Betting Insights
- Simon enters as the betting favorite, currently -550 at bet365.
- Smotherman is the underdog at +400, but his striking output and finishing rate make him intriguing for bettors hoping for a stand‑up war when making their UFC picks.
- Simon’s wrestling edge and recent KO victory give him multiple paths to victory here.
Ricky Simon vs Cameron Smotherman Prediction
Simon’s experience and grappling dominance provide the blueprint for control throughout three rounds. The key questions:
- Can Smotherman keep the fight upright and land enough damage?
- Will Simon be able to effectively close distance and pursue takedowns?
Simon enters with solid wrestling and elite cardio. If he executes his game plan, taking Smotherman down and controlling the pace, he’ll rack up points and limit damage. Smotherman’s main path to victory lies in keeping the fight at striking range and catching Simon in exchanges.
Given Simon’s takedown average of nearly five per 15 minutes and defense that keeps absorbed strikes low, he holds the statistical advantage. One scenario could see Simon winning by decision after three hard-fought rounds, but if he capitalizes early, a late submission or TKO is possible. Still, the safer pick for bettors is a Simon decision.
Final Thoughts
This clash pits Simon’s veteran wrestling and composure against Smotherman’s energetic striking assault. With Simon favored in the betting markets and boasting the stats to match, our projection leans toward Simon winning a decision. Under the lights in Atlanta, expect a strategic wrestling‑based fight where Simon holds control and prevails, casting doubt on Smotherman with a second loss in a row for the 27-year-old.
