Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland share a reputation for bonus-grabbing violence, and their welterweight showdown on the main card of UFC 316 this Saturday promises non-stop offense. Luque’s tight combinations and submission instincts meet Holland’s rangy kickboxing and opportunistic grappling in a meeting that could steal thunder from two title fights higher on the card. Continue reading to get our Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland prediction from Newark.
Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland Preview
Luque, 33, owns 23 wins, with 20 by finish, and enters off a 52-second anaconda choke of Themba Gorimbo last December. That rebound victory showed his trademark front-headlock game is as sharp as ever after a rough TKO loss to Joaquin Buckley nine months earlier. Over his UFC run, he averages roughly 5.1 significant strikes landed per minute, backed by strong takedown defense and a lethal submission arsenal built around D’Arce and anaconda chokes.
Holland, 32, is 6 ft 3 in with an 81-inch reach. That is more than 5 inches longer than Luque’s reach figure. He snapped a two-fight skid by defeating Gunnar Nelson by unanimous decision in London on March 22, stuffing 5 of 7 takedown attempts and using front-kicks to the body to manage distance. His career record sits at 27-13-0 with 22 finishes, and he averages about 4.2 significant strikes landed per minute. Holland’s black belts in kung fu and BJJ give him a dangerous guard, but his top priority has been to simply rack up fights rather than to win at all times.
- Height/Reach: Holland 6’3″, 81 in • Luque 5’11”, 75.5 in
- Recent Form (last 3): Luque 2-1 (W Gorimbo, L Buckley, W dos Anjos) • Holland 1-2 (W Nelson, L de Ridder, L Dolidze)
- Knockouts in UFC: Luque 8 • Holland 5
- Submission wins in UFC: Luque 6 • Holland 5
Expect Luque to walk forward behind a high guard, ripping the body and leg kicks before shifting upstairs with overhands. Holland will try to stab front kicks down the middle, circle away from the fence, and punish entries with counters or clinch elbows. Should the bout hit the mat, Luque’s top game and brabo variations are an immediate threat, whereas Holland prefers creating space for strikes or fishing for guillotines in transitions.
Betting Insights
Most major sportsbooks list Holland as a favorite around -275 with Luque a +220 underdog. The fight is set at +150 to go the distance, reflecting market expectation of a finish before the horn.
- Luque by Submission: +700
- Luque by KO/TKO: +900
- Holland by Submission: +550
- Holland by KO/TKO: +125
- Fight ends inside the distance (either man): -210
- Fight to go the distance: +150
Prop action shows respect for both athletes’ finishing instincts, with 20 of Luque’s 23 wins and 22 of Holland’s 27 ending early. Bettors backing Holland by decision (+275) are counting on a stick-and-move game plan that keeps him upright and winning minutes rather than moments, something Luque’s pressure often erodes.
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Vicente Luque vs Kevin Holland Prediction
Fast starts favor Luque. His low kicks and tight boxing can shorten Holland’s reach advantage, and if he scores an early leg kick knockdown or forces a clinch, his front-headlock series comes into play. Holland’s path relies on lateral movement, straight punches down the pipe, and disciplined distance control. However, he historically plants his feet to trade once he settles in, giving Luque the pocket engagements he craves.
Look for Holland to enjoy early success snapping jabs and kicking, but Luque’s durability and constant forward motion should draw the fight into close quarters. Inside the phone booth, Luque’s shorter hooks, body work, and threat of the brabo choke if Holland overhooks will turn exchanges in his favor.
- Moneyline: Luque +220
- Method: Submission
