Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Prediction – 5/26/2025

The Target Center promises a charged atmosphere this evening as the Minnesota Timberwolves attempt to knot the Western Conference Finals at two apiece after Saturday’s statement win over the Oklahoma City Thunder. The home side reclaimed belief with a 143–101 win that trimmed their deficit to 2–1 and reminded everyone that Anthony Edwards and company can trade haymakers with the league’s top seed. Tipoff is set for 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time, and the betting market still leans toward Oklahoma City despite their subpar showing over the weekend.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Preview

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander spent Sunday answering questions about a rare off night in which he managed only 14 points on 4/13 shooting. The newly crowned MVP has otherwise been sensational, carrying averages of 28.7 points, 6.6 assists and 5.4 rebounds through 14 postseason outings. Expect a determined response from a Thunder attack that ranked first in offensive rating during the regular season and leads the playoffs in drives to the rim.

Jalen Williams continues to solidify his reputation as an ideal co-creator, posting 19.6 points, 5.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists in this playoff run while shooting 49% from the floor. Chet Holmgren supplies interior length and floor-spacing at 15.2 points, 7.9 boards and 2.4 blocks, giving Oklahoma City a three-headed attack that can score at every level.

Minnesota’s answer begins with Edwards, whose 30-point burst in Game 3 pushed his postseason line to 26.5 points, 8.2 rebounds and 5.7 assists. His explosiveness opened space for Julius Randle, who has been a stellar contributor for Minnesota in these playoffs. Rudy Gobert has not posted gaudy numbers, yet his blocks and rebounding presence remain vital in keeping the Thunder out of easy second-chance buckets.

Both clubs list clean injury reports aside from Oklahoma City rookie Nikola Topic, who remains out after knee surgery. With full rotations available, coaching adjustments rather than availability will drive Game 4’s outcome. Chris Finch unleashed extended minutes for Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jaden McDaniels in Game 3 to hound Gilgeous-Alexander, and that defensive pressure forced the MVP into uncharacteristic turnovers. Mark Daigneault must engineer counters to loosen lanes and restart the Thunder’s downhill rhythm.

Betting Insights

• Point spread: Thunder -3
• Moneyline: Oklahoma City -151, Minnesota +127
• Total: 218 points
• The Thunder are 5-2 against the number on the road this postseason and 11-4 straight up in their last 15 conference playoff games.
• The Timberwolves are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 home dates and have cleared the posted total in four of their last five outings.
• Four of the previous five meetings between these teams in Minneapolis have stayed below the closing total, yet each game in this series has featured at least one quarter with 35 points or more by the winning side.
• Player props to monitor: Edwards over 29.5 points after shooting 57 percent on Saturday, and Gilgeous-Alexander over 7.5 free throws made given his season-long aggressiveness.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Prediction

Momentum swung hard in Minnesota’s favor over the weekend, but the Thunder thrive on rapid course correction. Gilgeous-Alexander’s playoff track record suggests a bounce-back scoring night, particularly if Daigneault employs more high pick-and-roll with Holmgren popping to drag Gobert away from the paint. Williams’ slashing keeps the defense honest, and Oklahoma City’s perimeter group has drilled 38 percent of its threes on the road in the playoffs, a figure likely to rise after a 9-for-32 misfire.

The Timberwolves, meanwhile, discovered a ferocious tempo that maximized their athletic edge. Edwards’ drives created open looks for McDaniels and Randle, while Towns attacked early post seals against smaller defenders. Minnesota must replicate that ballistic start to avoid late-game half-court stagnation that plagued its visits to Paycom Center.

Expect the pace to stabilize closer to the first two contests, with defenses regaining traction yet both stars putting up big lines. The total of 218 feels conservative given the shot-making on display and the increased reliance on the three-ball from both teams, so the lean is to the over. As for the side, the narrow spread and Minnesota’s dominating home ledger invite for the Timberwolves. Their confidence is soaring, the crowd will be deafening, and Finch’s wing defenders have shown they can at least disrupt Gilgeous-Alexander for stretches.

1. Best Bet: Timberwolves +3
2. Secondary angle: Over 218 total points
3. Player prop: Edwards over points becomes attractive if the line settles below thirty

With those wagers, bettors back a home underdog riding fresh momentum while still acknowledging offensive fireworks that have defined the series since Game 2. Minnesota evens the series in a thriller that edges past the number, setting up a massive Game 5 in Oklahoma City.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Win Probabilities

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