The state with the third largest impact on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020, is in North Carolina as the eight remaining candidates on the ballot will look to win as many of the 110 available delegates on the line. North Carolina looks like a state that will be a tight as the Iowa caucuses’ were as recent polling is showing the state as a real three person race.
Joe Biden received a jolt of energy after emerging with a big victory in South Carolina last weekend. Biden narrowed the gap to just eight, as the former Vice President now has 50 delegates and Bernie Sanders is sitting on 58.
Odds to win North Carolina Primary – odds via William Hill
- Joe Biden -250
- Bernie Sanders +200
- Michael Bloomberg +2000
- Elizabeth Warren +10000
- Pete Buttigieg +10000
- Amy Klobuchar +10000
According to polling on February 28,, 2020, Joe Biden is the slight favorite with an average polling aggregation of 22.9%. Right behind Biden is Bernie Sanders who is polling at 21.7% and Michael Bloomberg is sitting is third at 17.6%. The only other candidate polling in double figures is Elizabeth Warren who is currently polling at 10.6%. The three polls used for this polling aggregation were 270 to Win, RealClear Politics and FiveThirtyEight.
Back in 2016, Hillary Clinton put forth a strong showing and won North Carolina with relative ease. Clinton was awarded 60 delegates and earned 622,915 popular votes, which was good for 54.50% of the popular vote. Bernie was only awarded 47 delegates and earned 467,018 popular votes, which was good for 40.86% of the popular vote. Sanders was only able to win 16 counties in 2016, but was able to dominate the Independent vote, 58-34. Bernie’s strongest performance came in the Western part of the state and the Senator from Vermont was only able to win three other counties outside of that part of the state.
I think North Carolina is going to be another state that Joe Biden wins, on Super Tuesday, as the former Vice President makes a surge up the nomination ticket this week. Biden does need to win by more than what the polls are suggesting, but at this point the Biden campaign will take any win. Bernie will most likely finish in second, as the polls suggest, and Bloomberg a distant third. The remaining Presidential hopefuls will next turn their attention to six more states next Tuesday.
