On Wednesday, June 11, the Los Angeles Sparks will visit the Las Vegas Aces in a game between two teams with plenty of history. With the Las Vegas Aces aiming to build momentum and the Los Angeles Sparks looking to spring a surprise, this Los Angeles Sparks vs Las Vegas Aces prediction serves up a deeper look at their showdown.
Our Sparks vs Aces Pick
- Spread: Aces −11.5
- Total: Over 166.5
- Confidence: ★★★★
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Sparks @ Aces
- Date & Time: Wednesday, June 11, 2025, 10:00 PM ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Broadcast: CBS Sports Network
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Aces −11 | Aces −700 | Sparks +500 | 166.5 |
Key Storylines
- The Aces enter at 4-3 overall and 2-1 at home, coming off four days’ rest after a loss to Golden State on June 7.
- Las Vegas remains without center Megan Gustafson following a lower-leg injury, though A’ja Wilson and Kiah Stokes anchor the paint.
- Los Angeles (3-7) has been inconsistent, also losing their last game to the Golden State Valkyries.
- These teams made offseason waves, with Los Angeles acquiring Kelsey Plum from Las Vegas in a major trade that also brought Jewell Loyd to the Aces.
- Playoff implications are minimal early in the season, but both squads are still finding rhythm and chemistry.
Head-to-Head & Betting Trends
- Las Vegas swept the season series in 2024 with two decisive wins and took the first meeting this year, 96–81, on May 30.
- The Aces are 3-4 against the spread so far this season and will look to get back to the .500 mark against the number with a convincing performance on their home floor.
- Sparks have gone 4-6 against the spread through their first 10 games of the 2025 season.
- Both teams have seen over half of their games go over their respective totals this season, with Las Vegas going 4-3 to the over and Los Angeles going 5-4-1 to the over.
- At home, Aces are a solid 2–0, while the Sparks are 2-2 on the road.
Best Player Props to Watch
For those making WNBA betting picks for this game, there are a few prop angles worth monitoring.
| Player | Prop | Analysis |
|---|---|---|
| A’ja Wilson | Over 23.5 points | Wilson scored 35 points against the Sparks in their first meeting of the season. |
| Kelsey Plum | Over 20.5 points | Plum leads the Sparks with 21.8 points per game. Career revenge angle vs former team boosts outlook. |
| Chelsea Gray | Over 4.5 assists | Gray should be able to find some looks on the interior for Wilson that will result in assists in this contest. |
Advanced Metrics & Trends
- Both of these teams struggle in opponent effective field goal percentage, which should mean a high-scoring game.
- Pace: both squads rank near the middle of the pack in pace, valuing effective possessions over pure tempo.
- Both teams have a negative net rating so far this year as both teams have shown vulnerabilities on both ends of the floor.
- Mismatches: Sparks struggle to guard the paint, which will be a problem against Wilson could exploit that, while Las Vegas’ guards must stay vigilant on Plum.
Los Angeles Sparks vs Las Vegas Aces Model Prediction
Score Projection: Sparks 88 – Aces 103
Win Probability: Sparks 19%, Aces 81%
Final Thoughts
The Aces have the depth, rest, and elite frontcourt advantages to control this one, especially with Wilson locked in and the Sparks lacking consistent interior defense. The total looks low given both teams’ defensive woes and scoring potential. Lock in Aces −11.5 and take the over for a successful play on this mid-June night in Vegas.
